Project Suburbia – Flipping America Blue (Part 5 in a Series)

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7 mins read

CLICK HERE FOR PART 1

CLICK HERE FOR PART 2

CLICK HERE FOR PART 3

CLICK HERE FOR PART 4

THE PURPOSE

Since 2016, America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.

So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.

THE PROCESS

Step 1: Find America’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas.

Step 2: Find detailed maps of those Metropolitan areas.

Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.

NOTES:

*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.

*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.

*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.

*Election Data was gathered from two invaluable sources: Daily Kos and Ballotpedia.

THE LIST

This post will focus on the areas listed from 10-1 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page. 50-41 can be found here40-31 can be found here. 30-21 can be found here. 20-11 can be found here.

#10 – BOSTON, MA

State: Massachusetts

What’s Flippable in 2020: Massachussetts Upper State Districts 1st Essex and Middlesex, Plymouth and Barnstable, Plymouth and Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex, Worcester and Norfolk, Massachussetts Lower State Districts Essex (1, 2, 4) Middlesex (1, 20) Norfolk (9) Plymouth (1, 2, 5, 7, 8)

State: New Hampshire

What’s Flippable: New Hampshire Governor, New Hampshire State Senate 3, 6, 14, 17, 19, New Hampshire State House Rockingham 2 (3 seats), 3 (3 seats), 4 (5 seats), 5 (6 seats), 6 (9 seats), 7 (4 seats), 8 (9 seats), 9 (1 seat), 14 (4 seats), 15 (1 seat), 16 (1 seat), 19 (1 seat), 20 (3 seats), Strafford 2 (2 seats), 3 (2 seats), 9 (1 seat), 10 (1 seat), 12 (1 seat)

NOTE: The New Hampshire State House is unique, to say the least. Different districts have different numbers of representatives. Some have as many as 10 winners splitting the vote 10 ways (with voters being able to vote for as many candidates as there are seats). So while it wouldn’t take much for Democrats to flip some seats in any given district (literally a handful of votes decided several races in 2018), flipping all all available seats would be very difficult in many districts.

#9 – ATLANTA, GA

State: Georgia

What’s Flippable: 16 Electoral College Votes, Georgia Senate, Georgia Senate Special, Georgia 7th Congressional District, Georgia State Senate 9, 17, 32, 37, 45, 56; Georgia State House 34, 35, 43, 44, 45, 49, 52, 97, 104, 106, 109, 117

#8 – PHILADELPHIA, PA

State: Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania Congressional Map is not accurate on Statistical Atlas)

What’s Flippable: 20 Electoral College Votes, Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania State Senate 9; Pennsylvania State House 13, 18, 26, 29, 131, 142, 144, 145, 147, 151, 152, 160, 168, 170, 178

State: New Jersey

What’s Flippable in 2020: NOTHING.

State: Delaware

What’s Flippable: Delaware State Senate Districts 5, Delaware State House Districts 9, 21, 22.

State: Maryland

What’s Flippable in 2020: NOTHING.

#7 – MIAMI, FL

State: Florida

What’s Flippable: 29 Electoral College Votes, Florida 18th Congressional District, Florida State Senate 39, Florida State House 85, 89, 93, 105, 110, 111, 115, 116, 118, 119, 120

#6 – WASHINGTON, D.C.

District: Washington

What’s Flippable in 2020: Nothing. All city seats are blue.

State: Virginia

What’s Flippable in 2020: Virginia 1st Congressional District, Virginia 5th Congressional District

State: Maryland

What’s Flippable in 2020: Nothing; No Congressional Districts are flippable and no State Legislative races are being contested

State: West Virginia

What’s Flippable in 2020: West Virginia 2nd Congressional District, West Virginia State Senate 16, West Virginia State House 66

#5 – HOUSTON, TX

State: Texas

What’s Flippable: 38 Electoral College Votes, Texas Senate, Texas 2nd Congressional District, Texas 10th Congressional District, Texas 22nd Congressional District, Texas State House 23, 26, 28, 29, 85, 126, 129, 133, 134, 138, 150

#4 – DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX

State: Texas

What’s Flippable: 38 Electoral College Votes, Texas Senate, Texas 3rd Congressional District, Texas 6th Congressional District, Texas 24th Congressional District, Texas 25th Congressional District, Texas State House 64, 66, 67, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 106, 108, 112

#3 – CHICAGO, IL

State: Illinois

What’s Flippable in 2020: Illinois State Senate 25, Illinois State House 20, 37, 41, 42, 47, 50, 52, 54, 63, 64, 65, 66, 70, 79, 97

State: Indiana

What’s Flippable in 2020: Indiana Governor & More, Indiana State House 4

State: Wisconsin

What’s Flippable in 2020: Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, Wisconsin State House 32

#2 – LOS ANGELES, CA

State: California

What’s Flippable in 2020: California State Senate 21, 29 (recall election in 2018), 37; California State Assembly Districts 36, 55, 68, 72, 73

#1 – NEW YORK CITY, NY 

State: New York

What’s Flippable in 2020: New York’s 1st Congressional District, New York’s 2nd Congressional District, New York State Senate 1, 2, 4, 41, New York State House 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19, 20, 94, 99, 105

State: New Jersey

What’s Flippable in 2020: New Jersey 4th Congressional District

State: Connecticut

What’s Flippable in 2020: Connecticut State Senate 21, 28, Connecticut State House 106, 107, 108, 111, 112, 123, 125, 132, 134, 141, 143, 149, 151

State: Pennsylvania (Pennsylvania Congressional Map is not accurate on Statistical Atlas)

What’s Flippable: 20 Electoral College Votes, Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania State House 189

 

For more analysis, follow me on Twitter.


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