Project Suburbia – Flipping America Blue (Part 3 in a Series)

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Click Here to Read Part 1

Click Here to Read Part 2

THE PURPOSE

Since 2016 America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.

So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.

THE PROCESS

Step 1: Find America’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas.

Step 2: Find detailed maps of those Metropolitan areas.

Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.

NOTES:

*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.

*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.

*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.

*Election Data was gathered from two invaluable sources: Daily Kos and Ballotpedia.

THE LIST

This post will focus on the areas listed from 30-21 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page, with subsequent lists to come for areas 20-11, 10-1, and smaller metro areas of electoral significance. 50-41 can be found here40-31 can be found here.

#30AUSTIN, TX

State: Texas

What’s Flippable: 38 Electoral College Votes, Texas Senate Seat, Texas’ 10th Congressional District, Texas’ 17th Congressional District, Texas’ 31st Congressional District

#29 – CINCINNATI, OH

State: Ohio

What’s Flippable: 18 Electoral College Votes, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, Ohio State House Districts 27, 51, 52

State: Kentucky

What’s Flippable in 2020: Kentucky State House 63, 69

State: Indiana

What’s Flippable in 2020: Indiana Governor & More

#28 – LAS VEGAS, NV

State: Nevada

What’s Flippable in 2020: Nevada State Senate Districts 18, Nevada State Assembly Districts 2, 22

#27 – PITTSBURGH, PA

State: Pennsylvania

What’s Flippable: 20 Electoral College Votes, Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District (map is not accurate on Statistical Atlas), Pennsylvania State House Districts 11, 12, 28, 30, 40, 44, 46, 48, 49, 51, 54

#26 – SACRAMENTO, CA

State: California

What’s Flippable in 2020: California’s 1st Congressional District, California’s 4th Congressional District, California State Assembly District 6

#25 – PORTLAND, OR

State: Oregon

What’s Flippable in 2020: Oregon State House Districts 23, 24, 25, 39

State: Washington

What’s Flippable in 2020: Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Washington State Senate Districts 17, 18, Washington State House Districts 17 (2 seats), 18 (2 seats)

#24 – SAN ANTONIO, TX

State: Texas

What’s Flippable: 38 Electoral College Votes, Texas Senate Seat, Texas’ 21st Congressional District, Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, Texas State Senate District 19, Texas State House District 121

#23 – CHARLOTTE, NC (Maps for districts below are not current on Statistical Atlas)

State: North Carolina

What’s Flippable: 15 Electoral College Votes, North Carolina Senate Seat, North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, North Carolina State Senate 39, North Carolina State House 55, 82, 83

State: South Carolina

What’s Flippable in 2020: South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District, South Carolina State House 26

#22 – ORLANDO, FL

State: Florida

What’s Flippable: 29 Electoral College Votes, Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Florida’s 15th Congressional District, Florida State Senate District 9, Florida State House Districts 28, 29, 32, 39, 42, 50

#21 – BALTIMORE, MD

State: Maryland

What’s Flippable in 2020: Nothing; No Congressional Districts are flippable and no State Legislative races are being contested.

 

For further analysis of flippable seats please follow me on Twitter!

 


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