Project Suburbia – Flipping America Blue (Part 4 in a Series)

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Click Here to Read Part 1

Click Here to Read Part 2

Click Here to Read Part 3

Click Here to Read Part 5

THE PURPOSE

Since 2016, America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.

So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.

THE PROCESS

Step 1: Find America’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas.

Step 2: Find detailed maps of those Metropolitan areas.

Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.

NOTES:

*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.

*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.

*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.

*Election Data was gathered from two invaluable sources: Daily Kos and Ballotpedia.

THE LIST

This post will focus on the areas listed from 20-11 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page, with subsequent lists to come for areas 10-1, and smaller metro areas of electoral significance. 50-41 can be found here40-31 can be found here. 30-21 can be found here.

#20 – ST. LOUIS, MO

State: Missouri

What’s Flippable in 2020: Missouri Governor & More, Missouri 2nd Congressional District, Missouri State Senate District 15, Missouri State House Districts 65, 89, 94, 95, 96, 97, 100, 104, 105, 106, 107, 113

State: Illinois

What’s Flippable in 2020: Illinois 12th Congressional District, Illinois 13th Congressional District

#19 – DENVER, CO

State: Colorado

What’s Flippable in 2020: Colorado State Senate Districts 23, 25, 27; Colorado State House Districts 22, 38, 43, 44, 56

#18 – TAMPA, FL

State: Florida

What’s Flippable: 29 Electoral College Votes, Florida’s 15th Congressional District, Florida’s 16th Congressional District, Florida State House Districts 36, 38, 57, 58, 60, 64, 65, 66, 67

#17 – SAN DIEGO, CA

State: California

What’s Flippable in 2020: California’s 50th Congressional District, California State Assembly District 75

#16 – MINNEAPOLIS, MN

State: Minnesota

What’s Flippable in 2020: Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Minnesota State Senate Districts 20, 32, 33, 34, 38, 39, 44, 56, Minnesota State House Districts 32B, 33A, 34A, 35A, 35B, 37B, 38A, 39A, 47B, 54B, 58A, 58B

State: Wisconsin

What’s Flippable in 2020: 10 Electoral College Votes, Wisconsin State House 28, 29, 30, 93

#15 – SEATTLE, WA

State: Washington

What’s Flippable in 2020: Washington State Senate Districts 10, 25, 28; Washington State House Districts 10 (Position 1), 25 (Position 1 & Position 2), 26 (Position 1 & Position 2), 31 (Position 1 & Position 2), 39 (Position 1 & Position 2)

#14 – DETROIT, MI

State: Michigan

What’s Flippable: 16 Electoral College Votes, Michigan State House Districts 17, 24, 30, 38, 39, 43, 44, 45, 46

#13 – SAN BERNARDINO, CA

State: California

What’s Flippable in 2020: California’s 42nd Congressional District, California’s 50th Congressional District, California State Senate Districts 21, 23, 29, California State Assembly Districts 36, 42, 55, 75

#12 – SAN FRANCISCO, CA

State: California

What’s Flippable in 2020: NOTHING. ALL BLUE.

#11 – PHOENIX, AZ

State: Arizona

What’s Flippable: 11 Electoral College Votes, Arizona Senate, Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, Arizona State Senate Districts 8, 11, 17, 20, 21, 28, Arizona State House 8 (2 seats), 11 (2 seats), 15 (2 seats), 17 (1 seat), 20 (2 seats), 21 (2 seats), 23 (2 seats)

 

For more analysis, follow me on Twitter.

 


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