THE PURPOSE
Since 2016 America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.
So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.
THE PROCESS
Step 1: Find America’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas.
Step 2: Find detailed maps of those Metropolitan areas
Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.
NOTES:
*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.
*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.
*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.
*Election Data was gathered from two invaluable sources: Daily Kos and Ballotpedia.
THE LIST
This post will focus on the areas listed from 50-41 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page, with subsequent lists to come for areas 40-31, 30-21, 20-11, 10-1, and smaller metro areas of electoral significance.
#50 – BUFFALO, NY
State: New York
Most Flippable in 2020: New York’s 27th Congressional District, New York State Senate Districts 60, 61, New York State Assembly District 145
#49 – BIRMINGHAM, AL
State: Alabama
Most Flippable in 2020: Alabama State House District 47
#48 – HARTFORD, CT
State: Connecticut
Most Flippable in 2020: Connecticut State Senate Districts 6, 7, 8, 16, 31, 34, 35, Connecticut State House Districts 14, 17, 23, 32, 34, 35, 55, 59, 62, 77, 81, 101
#47 – SALT LAKE CITY, UT
State: Utah
Most Flippable in 2020: Utah Governor & More, Utah State Senate District 6; Utah State House Districts 30, 33, 38, 39, 43, 45, 47, 49
#46 – NEW ORLEANS, LA
State: Louisiana
Most Flippable in 2020: Nothing
#45 – LOUISVILLE, KY
State: Kentucky
Most Flippable in 2020: Kentucky Senate, Kentucky State House Districts 29, 33, 36, 49
State: Indiana
Most Flippable in 2020: Indiana Governor & More, Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, Indiana State House District 72
#44 – RICHMOND, VA
State: Virginia
Most Flippable in 2020: Virginia’s 1st Congressional District
#43 – MEMPHIS, TN
State: Tennessee
Most Flippable in 2020: Tennessee State House Districts 83, 97
State: Mississippi
Most Flippable in 2020: Mississippi Senate
State: Arkansas
Most Flippable in 2020: Nothing
#42 – RALEIGH, NC (Maps for districts below are not accurate on Statistical Atlas due to recent redistricting)
State: North Carolina
Most Flippable in 2020: 15 Electoral College Votes, North Carolina Lt. Gov. & More, North Carolina Senate, North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina State Senate Districts 11, 18; North Carolina State House District 7
#41 – OKLAHOMA CITY, OK
State: Oklahoma
Most Flippable in 2020: Oklahoma State Senate Districts 45, 47; Oklahoma State House Districts 53, 65, 81, 90, 100
For further analysis of flippable seats please follow me on Twitter!
