WHY MISSOURI MATTERS IN 2020

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5 mins read
By Julie Frontera

WHERE THINGS STAND IN MISSOURI TODAY

Once considered America’s ultimate bellwether state, Missouri is now firmly in the Republican column. 

Even in 2018, when Democrats saw great success across the country, Missouri voters replaced Claire McCaskill with Josh Hawley in the Senate, Democrats were unable to flip a single House seat, and Republicans actually *expanded* their supermajority in both Missouri State Legislative chambers.

In any other year, there would be few Missouri races on the table. But a confluence of events – from Covid to Trump’s electoral implosion – has made the Show Me state far more interesting than anyone could have guessed.

REASON #1 – FLIPPING THE GOVERNORSHIP

Thanks to his uneven handling of Covid, Republican Governor Mike Parson has seen his popularity dwindle in this otherwise red state.

Democratic candidate (and current State Auditor) Nicole Galloway has been steadily closing the gap over the past few months, and if a blue wave hits hard enough (particularly via the Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs), Nicole could win this race. 

And in the process we could deny Republicans a ‘trifecta’ in this very conservative state. Right now Nicole is only trailing by single-digits. If she continues to build support, watch out.

REASON #2 – ENDING THE STATE HOUSE SUPERMAJORITY

There are 163 seats in the Missouri State House, and all 163 seats are up for election this year. Democrats would need a net gain of over 30+ seats to flip the chamber, which is unlikely. 

But Democrats would only need a net gain +7 seats to stop the Republican veto-proof supermajority if Democrat Nicole Galloway becomes Governor.

The following Districts are in range of being ‘flippable’ in 2020: 10, 13, 16, 30, 31, 34, 44, 47, 60, 65, 89, 94, 96, 100, 104, 105, 106, 134, and 135.

See the district maps HERE.

REASON #3 – ENDING THE STATE SENATE SUPERMAJORITY

The Missouri State Senate is made up of 34 seats. Only *17* of those seats are up for election in 2020. Democrats would need a net gain of +8 to flip the chamber, which is unlikely. 

But the more important goal would be to get a net gain of +2 seats to stop the Republican veto-proof supermajority in case Nicole Galloway becomes Governor.

The Districts to flip are 15, 19, and 23.

The Districts to defend are 1, 11, and 17.

See the district maps HERE.

REASON #4 – FLIPPING MISSOURI’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

There is one Congressional District in Missouri that has the potential to flip from red-to-blue, and that is Missouri’s 2nd, located outside of St. Louis.

Democrat Jill Schupp is waging an excellent campaign to unseat Republican Ann Wagner. This is exactly the kind of suburban House district that Democrats have focused on the last few years. We came up short in 2018, but 2020 could be our year.

REASON #5 – WINNING OTHER STATE EXECUTIVE ELECTIONS 

Besides the Governor’s race, there are several other State Executive seats to be filled this year. Here are the races and their Democratic candidates:

Lt. Governor – Alissia Canady

Attorney General – Richard Finneran

Secretary of State – Yinka Faleti

Treasurer – Vicki Englund

REASON #6 – BALLOT MEASURES

There are 2 Ballot Measures on the Missouri ballot this November. A 3rd pertaining to Medicaid expansion was moved to the primary date in order to avoid turnout for that popular proposal from helping Democrats.

The first measure is about term limits for State Executive offices and the other has to do with redistricting and elections.

As always, please read the wording carefully before casting your vote.

REASON #7 – MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

There are numerous Municipal Elections that voters in St. Louis County, Clay County, Jackson County, and Platte County must pay attention to.

REASON #8 – MISSOURI’S 10 ELECTORAL VOTES

Do we need to get them? No.

Would I like to have them? Yes.

Thanks for reading about why Missouri matters so much this year. I hope you found this post to be informative and useful!

For further analysis and election info, please feel free to follow me on Twitter at @TrumpsTaxes.


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