THE PURPOSE
Since 2016 America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.
So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.
THE PROCESS
Step 1: Find America’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas.
Step 2: Find detailed maps of those Metropolitan areas
Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.
NOTES:
*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.
*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.
*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.
*Election Data was gathered from two invaluable sources: Daily Kos and Ballotpedia.
THE LIST
This post will focus on the areas listed from 40-31 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page, with subsequent lists to come for areas 30-21, 20-11, 10-1, and smaller metro areas of electoral significance. 50-41 can be found here.
#40 – JACKSONVILLE, FL
State: Florida
What’s Flippable in 2020: 29 Electoral College Votes, Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Florida State House Districts 12, 15, 16
#39 – MILWAUKEE, WI
State: Wisconsin
What’s Flippable: 10 Electoral College Votes, Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District, Wisconsin State Senate District 8, Wisconsin State Assembly Districts 13, 15, 21, 23, 24, 38, 82, 84
#38 – PROVIDENCE, RI
State: Rhode Island
What’s Flippable in 2020: Rhode Island State Senate Districts 17, 21, 23, 34, 38, Rhode Island State House Districts 28, 29, 36, 39, 46, 47
State: Massachusetts
What’s Flippable in 2020: Massachusetts State House Districts Bristol: 1, 3, 4, 12, 14
#37 – VIRGINIA BEACH, VA
State: Virginia
What’s Flippable in 2020: Virginia’s 1st Congressional District
State: North Carolina
What’s Flippable in 2020: North Carolina State House District 1
#36 – NASHVILLE, TN
State: Tennessee
What’s Flippable in 2020: Tennessee State Senate District 20, Tennessee State House Districts 37, 49
#35 – SAN JOSE, CA
State: California
What’s Flippable in 2020: NOTHING. IT’S ALL BLUE.
#34 – INDIANAPOLIS, IN
State: Indiana
What’s Flippable in 2020: Indiana Governor, Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, Indiana State Senate Districts 30, 35, 36, Indiana State House Districts 24, 37, 39, 40, 60, 88, 89
#33 – CLEVELAND, OH
State: Ohio
What’s Flippable: 18 Electoral College Votes, Ohio State Senate District 24, Ohio State House Districts 16, 55, 61
#32 – COLUMBUS, OH
State: Ohio
What’s Flippable: 18 Electoral College Votes, Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, Ohio State Senate District 16, Ohio State House Districts 23, 67
#31 – KANSAS CITY, MO
State: Missouri
What’s Flippable in 2020: Missouri Governor & More, Missouri State House Districts 13, 16, 30, 31, 34, 38
State: Kansas
What’s Flippable in 2020: Kansas Senate, Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District, Kansas State Senate Districts 5, 8, 10, 11 Kansas State House Districts 8, 14, 15, 17, 20, 26, 28, 38, 39, 40, 49, 78, 121.
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