Since 2016 America has witnessed a political realignment in election results across the country. Whether it was Virginia in 2017, the House victory in 2018, or Kentucky in 2019, one thing has been consistent: Once reliably red suburbs have shifted blue.
So I set out to identify what else could be flipped if we focused our attention on the suburbs. From impacting Electoral College Votes and state-wide races to winning Congressional seats and State Legislative seats, so much is in play. Yes, we need to compete everywhere. No, these are not the only seats we can flip. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t be strategic! And this list is meant to guide resisters, donators, voters and volunteers in major suburban areas across this country for a brighter, bluer future.
Step 3: Determine what was flippable based on the following criteria: Closeness of the 2016 Presidential race, underperformance of Trump vs. fellow Republicans in 2016, trends from previous elections, news reports, experts, retirements, scandals, and more.
*Not all Congressional and State Legislative seats fall fully within Metro Areas, and some Metro Areas span more than one state.
*Not all seats are equally flippable; some are on the cusp, others more difficult.
*No matter how red the state, I’m including any statewide state level elections. After Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, I believe anything is possible.
This post will focus on the areas listed from 40-31 on the aforementioned Metropolitan page, with subsequent lists to come for areas 30-21, 20-11, 10-1, and smaller metro areas of electoral significance. 50-41 can be found here.
#40 – JACKSONVILLE, FL
#39 – MILWAUKEE, WI
What’s Flippable: 10 Electoral College Votes, Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District, Wisconsin State Senate District 8, Wisconsin State Assembly Districts 13, 15, 21, 23, 24, 38, 82, 84
#38 – PROVIDENCE, RI
State: Rhode Island
#37 – VIRGINIA BEACH, VA
What’s Flippable in 2020: Virginia’s 1st Congressional District
State: North Carolina
What’s Flippable in 2020: North Carolina State House District 1
#36 – NASHVILLE, TN
#35 – SAN JOSE, CA
What’s Flippable in 2020: NOTHING. IT’S ALL BLUE.
#34 – INDIANAPOLIS, IN
What’s Flippable in 2020: Indiana Governor, Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, Indiana State Senate Districts 30, 35, 36, Indiana State House Districts 24, 37, 39, 40, 60, 88, 89
#33 – CLEVELAND, OH
#32 – COLUMBUS, OH
#31 – KANSAS CITY, MO
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