Justin Amash and the Crucial Pivot Counties

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2 mins read
Justin Amash (L-Michigan 3rd)

What a difference a few months make.

Three months ago, I was writing about whether or not Justin Amash’s third party bid for the presidency would act as a spoiler. Since then, of course, he dropped that bid. Today, I’m writing to let you know he’s decided not to even run for re-election in his district, Michigan’s 3rd district.

He confirmed the rumor on Twitter last night:

I love representing our community in Congress. I always will. This is my choice, but I’m still going to miss it.

Thank you for your trust.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) July 17, 2020

So, who is running for his seat?

The Michigan primary election takes place on August 4th. There are currently 5 Republicans running in the GOP primary (whose names you can see HERE at Ballotpedia), and the Democrats are running Hillary Scholten as their candidate. Scholten has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren and others, and was recently added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue list.

Hillary Scholten
Find her campaign website HERE
Follow her on Twitter HERE
Follow her on Facebook HERE

Now, I also want to point out that Michigan’s 3rd district is in what they call a “pivot county.” These are counties that voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. It is considered to be a reasonably competitive race. Now with no incumbent running, I assume we’ll see the rating for this district become more competitive.

If you’re curious about pivot counties, Ballotpedia identified 206 counties across the country that fall into this category. You can see a listing of these counties by state HERE. I am enormously curious to see what happens to these counties in 2020. With work, I bet we can swing them back to blue!


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