The Savvy Strategy of the Impeachment Resolution

3 mins read

I’m not sure many people realize how shrewd Pelosi et al. were with this impeachment resolution.

As you all know, I don’t often have occasion to compliment Nancy Pelosi on strategy, but in this, she was very savvy- capitalizing on the GOP’s insistence on open process. Now, to some degree, and has been noted in media, the GOP’s focus on process is one of necessity, the substance is so terrible they can not talk about it at all. That said, Pelosi worked them on this.

Let me explain. Despite their public protestations, to the contrary, the LAST thing Republicans wanted is sunlight on the details on this scandal. The details, especially taken collectively, are, well, damning. Which is why my expectation was they planned to use their control of the senate to squelch the “trial” component as much as possible, bc folks, they have to acquit a guilty man at the end.

What *might* have happened was that the investigatory components might have happened fairly invisibly, over in the House, because unlike the other recent impeachments, there was no investigation done so the House is doing it in real time. As such, it might have made sense to move through this evidence gathering stage quickly & fairly quietly, knowing the senate trial would allow the public the opportunity to “weigh” the evidence.

Pelosi used their staged outrage about process to be able to move much of the trial component to the House, where it can be visible. Now, there is no way for McConnell to rush the acquittal through without a public airing of the evidence. I’m not sure people appreciate how imp this is and the effect it is likely to have on public opinion.

Also, the response that will come from the acquittal. It definitely makes McConnell’s job harder. Keep in mind, at some point McConnell is going to be forced to put this on the floor & his endangered GOP senators are going to be forced to take a very unappetizing vote that will be immediately weaponized against them by their Democratic opponents.

The worst way for this to go down is for the public to first get to see the depth and breadth of the case against Trump then see him acquitted because it’s going to make those votes toxic, and it’s going to turn the 2020 vote into a massive referendum.

I think this is likely to exasperate the enthusiasm advantage Democrats already hold in 2020, because both Democrats and many Independents are going to see the 2020 election, and their participation in it, as the only avenue to put the brakes on Trump.

That’s known as “stakes,” and high stakes are great turnout juicers.

Originally posted on Twitter. Re-posted with permission.

Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, & data girl. America's 2nd Favorite Rachel.

2 Comments

  1. Really great article on National Politics. I think it’s spot on in terms of politics. Although, I hope The Speaker will scrupulously continue to focus on Constitutional necessities and The Rule of Law. If I may be so insolent to offer a small edit, “exasperate” is perhaps conveys a different meaning than you intended. Perhaps you meant “exacerbate”, which is also spot on. If I’m wrong my apologies.

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