The consequences of voting for a third party candidate
“Jill Stein spoiled the 2016 election for Hillary Clinton”
“Jill Stein’s voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin helped Donald Trump win the White House. Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in the three “Blue Wall” states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — was less than the total number of votes received by Green Party candidate, Stein in those states.
Ralph Nader makes Bush President. “Remember all the chaos in the 2000 Florida vote count? The entire presidential election hinged on the result. In the end, Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee, got more than 97,000 votes there. In a state that George W. Bush eventually won by 537.” – Salon
“No Labels, a new group that’s warning it might launch a third-party candidacy if it isn’t happy with the two major party nominees.” – NY Times
How did third party candidates get Bush and Trump elected? Who are the people behind No Labels? Follow the money behind No Labels? Use this StoryMap to understand the consequences of voting for a third party like NO LABELS.
“Although Trump won the election with 306 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, Michigan has 16 electoral votes, and Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes. This means that, if the Stein voters in those three states had all supported Clinton instead of Trump, the Republican candidate would have only received 260 electoral votes — 10 shy of the minimum necessary to become president.
Stein only received roughly one-third of Nader’s share of the popular vote (roughly 3 percent for Nader compared with roughly 1 percent for Stein), both Green Party candidates managed to make up the difference between the victorious Republican and the defeated Democrat in enough swing states to theoretically decide the election (New Hampshire and Florida for Nader in 2000 and the three “Blue Wall” states in 2016).” – Salon
How Ralph Nader cost Gore an election
“Nader won enough votes in two states — Florida and New Hampshire — to put either of them in Gore’s column. Nader won 97,488 votes in Florida, which easily could have swung the election to give Gore the state’s 25 electoral votes, and there would have been no need for a recount. Even without Florida, adding Nader’s 4 percent of the New Hampshire vote to Gore’s 47 percent would have given Gore a 270 to 267 victory in the electoral college.” – WaPo
No Labels Third-Party Bid: A Plan that Will Re-elect Trump – Third Way
“Rather than producing a third-party ticket that would defy the overwhelming odds and win, No Labels is on track to field a spoiler who would re-elect Trump or a Trump-like Republican. Given the overwhelming odds against a third-party candidate and the mountain of evidence about who their ticket would hurt, the conclusion is inescapable: No Labels is committed to fielding a candidate that will, intentionally or not, provide a crucial boost to Republicans – and a major obstacle to Biden. As a result, they’ll make it far more likely—if not certain—that Donald Trump returns to the White House.” – Third Way
The No Labels Third-Party Bid Can’t Win
“No Labels is arguing this is a unique historical moment that gives their “unity ticket” a real shot at winning the White House. But that is an illusion. The data and historical evidence are clear: no third-party candidate would come close to winning.
- History of Failure: Voters don’t back third parties. Since 1900, third-party candidates didn’t win enough electoral votes in sum to win one election.
- The Polling Mirage: Third-party candidates poll well at first before plummeting; Gary Johnson hit 10% in 2016, Ross Perot 36% in 1992, John Anderson 26% in 1980. But by Election Day they had cratered and failed to win a single electoral vote.
- Base Illusion: No Labels says a plurality of Americans identify as Independents. It’s actually 9% when partisan leaners are taken into account. That is not a base that can win.
- Fantasy Map: No Labels has laid out their purported path to Electoral College victory in the map below. Among other imaginings, they claim their candidate could win states like Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont, all states Biden won by 30 or more points in 2020. They argue Biden would win only two states (plus DC). In perhaps their biggest stretch, No Labels claims they could beat Biden in his home state of Delaware.” – Third Way
TakeAway: Understand the consequences of voting for a third party candidate. Don’t waste your vote.
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